Spot Gold Price to break 1000 by G20 meeting ?

I think we are entering a very interesting phase of the gold market run so far.  Not that the other phases of the gold market run have not been interesting, they have. But it just seems as though we could be entering one of the most interesting, if not the most interesting phases pretty soon.  Now before I get to what exactly I am talking about, keep in mind that I seem to have a bad habit of expecting things to happen too early in this gold market.  I have been expecting price moves to happen a lot sooner than they actually have.  Perhaps it is a simple underestimation of the necessary price work that is necessary before new major trends can take place.  The gold market is not a tech stock, it is basically a currency, and while currencies do make big and fast moves, in my experience so far they tend to move in more orderly slower fashion than other types of markets.

Ok, so having said that lets get on to what I am talking about.

This is the 8 hour price bar chart of the spot gold price.  It is zoomed in to the portion of the gold price action since March 22nd, the time of the third attempt to break out above 1000.  You can see that the price pattern does seem to have somewhat of a saucer formation of which spot gold has already completed roughly two thirds of the saucer.  You can also clearly see the huge 8 hour price bar that occurred after the Fed announcement of buying 300 billion of long bonds.  That price bar was a huge sign of strength and seems to confirm this saucer pattern.  We have retraced a fibonacci 61.8 percent of that huge rally and now we seem to once again be basing for a new move up that rallies along this saucer support line.

I have drawn in a vertical dashed line of April 2nd which happens to be the upcoming G20 meeting. I have no clue what is going to happen at the G20 meeting or if anything substantial is going to come out of it.  However, I can say that I do find it interesting that the date of this meeting is close to a point in the pattern above that would be consistent with a massive upside breakout.

Secondly, it is worth noting that the huge sign of strength 8 hour price bar on the chart above should be followed by a similar type of move after this retracement which appears to be almost complete.  If that happens then we should be able to get very close to 1000 on this next move and then beyond.

The first chart above is potentially the handle of a larger cup and handle indicated by this chart:

So, is it really possible that the spot gold price is going to reach and break 1000…

Within the next 7 trading days ! ? !

It would seem impossible to think such a thing, perhaps even a little bit crazy. Or not?

Well I will leave it for you to make your own judgment on it.  My own personal take right now is that it certainly is possible.  Possible at least because gold has been displaying large volatility lately and seems to be capable of making big moves in shorter periods of time.  Possible also because we have end of month coming up and end of quarter (window dressing).  If you are a gold mutual fund or hedge fund looking forward to gold performance helping make your quarterly statements look better, wouldn’t you want to paint the tape a little bit going into the end of the quarter to make your statements look even better? I would.  And that should help us close strong for the month of March and the quarter closing in March.

By the way, what has been most interesting about the recent decline in the gold price since March 23rd is how many formerly very bullish market veterans have turned bearish and are expecting big declines in gold.  The Hulbert survey of gold sentiment after the decline from March 23rd is quite astounding.  The fast price destruction really pushed people into the bearish camp.  It has been simple amazing how quickly the psychology has turned. Many if not most of the top traders I follow whom I consider to be very good market timers have also been bearish on gold and are looking for lower prices.  Of course they could still be right, but I just have to admit that I have been surprised how quickly people switched to the other side.

I do not want to over dramatize things, but certainly the next 7 trading days in the gold market have the potential for being very interesting indeed…